[ti:Study: Nearly 70 percent of Glaciers Could Melt Away by 2100]
[al:Science and Technology]
[ar:VOA]
[dt:2023-01-15]
[by:www.voase.cn]
[00:00.00]A new study has found that nearly 70 percent of the world's glaciers could disappear by the end of 2100.
[00:11.95]A group of international scientists recently reported the study in the publication Science.
[00:21.52]They said their predictions were based on current climate change developments.
[00:28.41]However, the researchers noted many glaciers can be saved if planet warming is reduced.
[00:38.23]The findings provide the most detailed examination yet of the world's 215,000 glaciers.
[00:49.16]The study considered four possible world temperature rises.
[00:55.35] One is a 1.5 degrees Celsius increase in the average world temperature. 
[01:03.35]A 2015 international treaty, called the Paris Agreement, established a targeted long-term warming limit of 1.5 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial levels.
[01:21.11]The agreement aims to limit the harmful effects of climate change on Earth.
[01:29.28]The study also considered possible temperature rises of 2, 3 and 4 degrees Celsius.
[01:39.76]Regine Hock is a professor of geophysics at the University of Oslo and University of Alaska Fairbanks. 
[01:50.73]She was a co-writer of the study. 
[01:54.46]She told the French news agency AFP, "Every degree increase produces more melt and loss."
[02:04.96]Hock added that if Earth's temperature can be reduced, glacier losses can also be limited.
[02:13.44]"In that sense, there is also a little bit of hope," she said.
[02:19.69]The study found that even if world temperature rise is limited to 1.5 Celsius above pre-industrial levels, an estimated 49 percent of the world's glaciers would disappear by the year 2100.
[02:39.56]That amount of loss would represent about 26 percent of the world's total glacier mass.
[02:48.64]Current estimates suggest that if climate change keeps heading in the same direction, the world is set to have a 2.7 Celsius rise in temperature. 
[03:03.06]That increase would cause nearly all glaciers in Central Europe, Western Canada, the continental United States and New Zealand to melt by 2100, the study found.
[03:19.44]If the world temperature rose as high as 4 degrees Celsius, large glaciers such as those in Alaska would be more affected and 83 percent of glaciers would melt away by the end of the century, the researchers predicted.
[03:40.05]The scientists noted that glacier loss would also worsen the problem of sea level rise. 
[03:49.57]For example, the study found that warming of 1.5 degrees would lead to an average sea level rise of of nine centimeters.
[04:01.75]Temperatures of 4 degrees would cause 15 centimeters of sea level rise.
[04:09.12]The disappearance of glaciers will also affect water resources, the researchers said. Glaciers provide freshwater for about two billion people.
[04:23.65]The study's predictions were reached through observations of the size of each glacier over many years. 
[04:32.73]The researchers also used computer simulations to arrive at the new findings.
[04:39.96]Hock noted that it is currently unclear whether the study's estimates will come true. 
[04:47.55]But she said the extreme predictions do not mean that it is too late to reduce glacier loss through human actions.
[04:57.56]Hock urged policymakers around the world to take action now to prevent such glacier loss from happening.
[05:08.16]I'm Bryan Lynn.